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_The Long Emergency_ is a curious mix of fact, interpretation, prediction and personal bias. It discusses many of the interacting forces that impact individual and collective survival in the current time frame. The author believes most of these are driven by the availability of cheap energy (oil). From early mention of the concept of an ecological "omega point" through concluding reflections on individual survival, the author covers a great deal of ground. Within are many buzzwords, socio-technico neologisms and chic phrases, including globalism, CEO [over]compensation, pollution, fear and greed, complexity and opacity, "privatizing profits, socializing costs," "ecological economics" and "collective hallucination of relative value." A rather novel issue is how Kunstler extends the concept of entropy well outside the realm of physics, resulting in such usages as "entropic byproducts" and "entropy bunkers." The book pushes many hot buttons, but the overall tone is dismal. Not until three fourths of the way through the book does Kunstler mention that it is a personal vision: "My role as an author is to think about things the public is indisposed to dwell on, and to present a framework for understanding a particular set of challenges." [p 238] This perception should have appeared in the beginning, as a qualification. Other shortcomings include: - Cites are few and tend to be only from the lay press, rather than from peer reviewed sources (or at least not directly from the latter). Considering the veracity of the mainstream media, the rigor of assertion or defense is less than satisfying. - The general analysis tends to be "linear" or Malthusian. Critical state analysis ("fingers of instability" and triggers of cascading effects) is not discussed. - The basic theme apparently does not reckon the possibility of a Manhatten Project for survival, or an Internet-style technological "end run" to develop and implement solutions. For example, robotic mining of the moon and asteroids, coupled with space-based manufacturing of orbital "shades" to address global warming and introduce a new energy source. - Not discussed is the how innovation can precipitate key advances in the search for solutions (e.g., solar breeders, and solar pyrolysis- catalysis facilities, etc.). - Not mentioned is the enormous potential of widespread geothermal sources, which still have miniscule market penetration. (Iceland is a notable and very commendable exception.) - Kunstler believes that the U.S. Southwest will be more severely affected than other parts of the U.S. - despite the fact that this region is the sandbox for solar insolation. (Where there is sun, there is energy - which, ironically, is the principal topic being discussed.) - The book does not cover the concept of a "risk carry trade" for energy sources (e.g., the immense political subsidy of the Price- Anderson Act for the nuclear industry, and the huge economic subsidy for ethanol production). - In places Kunstler clearly exposes his politically liberal biases. Some readers likely will be greatly offended. Regrettably, these apparent biases call into question his perceptions on other facets of the work. Criticisms aside, the book is a good collection of notes relating to individual and collective survival. It will also challenge the objective reader...on several levels. -LKVollständige Rezension lesen
Time is running out. "The Long Emergency", by James Kunstler, opens our eyes to how dependant we are on oil. We are dependant on it for gasoline for our vehicles, to get from one place to another. But not just transporation- we also depend on oil for production of pharmaceuticals, plastics, industry and food. Without oil we do not have the capacity of growing (Industrial Fertilizers) and transporting (Trucks) food to sustain our population. The bad news is: oil is running out. Earth's population before oil was around a billion. It now is almost 7 billion. Take the oil away and earth can no longer support it's population. This book is a dark prophecy predicting what will happen once oil does indeed run out. The book surveys our dependency on oil and our blindness to the consequencess of this dependance. It also shows why other forms of fuel such as Nuclear, coal, wind and solar are not a replacement for oil. It depicts a grim picture of what the world will become without oil: Wars, Famine, Disease to be catalyzed even more by pollution and global warming. The book is very well written and all is explained in a clear way. You do not need to be an expert on the chemistry of fuels or the geography of the world to see what this book says. You just have to look around you. If you are looking for a nice happy book to read over the weekend this book is not for you. If anything, this book will make you sad, for the future that lays ahead for humankind, a future that does not look so bright. Hopefull it will engage you in thinking of our ways of life and how to change them, hopefully lessening the blow of what is to come- The Long Emergency.Vollständige Rezension lesen
Great book, well written. This books gives an interesting perspective on some basic middle eastern history and what could happen in the years to come regarding resources of that area. He ties all those things together with how it will hit the USA in the years ahead.
This book tips us off to the end of the "free flow" of oil and how it will effect us all! The middle is a little long, but you better read to the end!