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This book can be very dense in many places. Attempting to read it cover-to-cover is a challenge unless you have a lot of spare time to devote to it. Beware that the author has a dry sense of humor. He occasionally slips in deep sarcasm that you might take literally. This is one of those books you really need to read at least 2 times to appreciate it. To get the core concepts quickly, I suggested the following reading approach. 1. Review the Glossary, page 307. Don’t try to memorize the terms yet. Review just so you know which terms you can look up when they are used in the book. 2. Read Mediocristan vs. Extremistan, pp 32 – 37. These 2 terms are the most important concept in the author’s approach to uncertainty. It is important to understand them to grasp many of the author’s arguments throughout the book. 3. Read How to Learn From a Turkey, pp 40 – 42. This is a canonical example of a Black Swan event. 4. Read Gambling with the Wrong Dice, pp 125 – 129, and then pp 129-130. These passages give a vivid example of the Black Swan problem and how planners focus on the wrong things. 5. Read chapter 10, The Scandal of Prediction, starting on pp 137 - 164. This chapter most closely corresponds to “classical” project planning. I found the following sections within this chapter especially thought provoking. a. I Was “Almost Right”, pp 151 – 154. b. The Character of Predication Errors, pp 159 – 160. c. Other Than That It Was OK, pp 156 – 157. 6. The Three Ball Problem, pp 176 – 179. Gives the scientific basis of why prediction is impossible. I suggest skipping any discussions of philosophers on the first reading. These philosophical segments give background on the genesis of the author’s thinking. They are not necessary for understanding the author’s main points.Vollständige Rezension lesen
Fasten your seatbelts. Exceedingly counterintuitive insights and wisdom. Read slowly and ponder. We've bought 4 copies to give some away to younger family members for their continuing education in Life (and the "used" books were in excellent shape and at bargain price).
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As much as Taleb would have us believe that he is a "practicioner" rather than an "academician" he is no man of the people! This book is not written in plain English and has more academic name-dropping in it than any philosophical treatise I've ever read. That being said, there are some really interesting insights in this book, you just have to wade through lots of babel to get to them. The other thing that annoyed me is that except for the very august and respectable (heavy sarcasm) world of trading, Taleb expresses disdain for just about every other profession there is. Thank goodness he calls to task such low-life organizations and concepts as the Nobel Institute and Gaussian probability!! If you've got a ton of time on your hands, this book might be worth it. Otherwise, I think there are other ways to learn the same concepts.Vollständige Rezension lesen
I completely agree with tevans00. If this guy could get over himself long enough to write something for us little people, it would be a five star book. I managed to get through the book and am glad I did. The tragedy of the book is how Taleb challenges the gag reflexes of his readers by his insane arrogance. If he was even a little humble about his knowledge and experiences this would be a five star book worthy of every risk management student and practitioner. In a nutshell the point that he makes very well and then backs up is that just because we haven't seen something happen doesn't mean it won't. A 50% drop in the Dow over four months is a good example of his point. The ramifications are significant.
The Black Swan is very interesting in some respects, but I have to admit that I was turned off by the author's voice - he seems like a pretentious pseudo-intellectual and confuses me by jumping around centuries at a time in the history of man without establishing real connections. I know, he would probably say that is because there are no real connections, they have all been trumped up by the experts. Well, maybe so, but why is he the expert to believe on this? Nevertheless, there is certainly some validity to his "black swan" analogy and theory about unpredictable events. The tone of the book is rather Steven Colbertish - though not always amusing. At this point, I am struggling to want to finish the book.
