MOMENTAN AUSVERKAUFT
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Product Identifiers
PublisherSpringer New York
ISBN-100387098364
ISBN-139780387098364
eBay Product ID (ePID)69706965
Product Key Features
Number of PagesXxviii, 212 Pages
Publication NameApocalypse When? : Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive
LanguageEnglish
Publication Year2009
SubjectEnvironmental Science (See Also Chemistry / Environmental), Physics / Astrophysics, Ecology, Statistics, Astronomy
TypeTextbook
Subject AreaNature, Social Science, Science
AuthorWillard Wells
SeriesSpringer Praxis Bks.
FormatTrade Paperback
Dimensions
Item Weight16 Oz
Item Length9.3 in
Item Width6.1 in
Additional Product Features
Intended AudienceScholarly & Professional
ReviewsFrom the reviews: "After introducing the reader to key ideas in probability and statistics, Wells starts to develop ideas of probability based first on random-hazard rates ... and then ideas based on our own history of survival as a species, and as a civilization. ... the book reasonably accessible to the general reader ... . The book is well organized, and is written in an easy style ... ." (Robert Connon Smith, The Observatory, Vol. 131 (1222), June, 2011), From the reviews:After introducing the reader to key ideas in probability and statistics, Wells starts to develop ideas of probability based first on random-hazard rates … and then ideas based on our own history of survival as a species, and as a civilization. … the book reasonably accessible to the general reader … . The book is well organized, and is written in an easy style … . (Robert Connon Smith, The Observatory, Vol. 131 (1222), June, 2011)
Number of Volumes1 vol.
IllustratedYes
SynopsisThis book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and "reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula., This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets in the coming years. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and "reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula., Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. This book provides a unique analysis of the chances of human survivability in the short and long term. It develops a formula for survival based on four separate measures.
LC Classification NumberQB1-991
