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Der schwarze Schwan: Zweite Auflage: Die Auswirkungen des Hochwahrscheinlichen: Mit einem...-
by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas | HC | Good
US $7,87
Ca.EUR 6,79
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eBay-Artikelnr.:373557742766
Artikelmerkmale
- Artikelzustand
- Gut
- Hinweise des Verkäufers
- Binding
- Hardcover
- Weight
- 1 lbs
- Product Group
- Book
- IsTextBook
- No
- ISBN
- 9781400063512
Über dieses Produkt
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Random House Publishing Group
ISBN-10
1400063515
ISBN-13
9781400063512
eBay Product ID (ePID)
56992376
Product Key Features
Edition
2
Book Title
Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility
Number of Pages
480 Pages
Language
English
Topic
Information Theory, Future Studies, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Statistics, Corporate Finance / General
Publication Year
2007
Illustrator
Yes
Genre
Computers, Social Science, Business & Economics
Book Series
Incerto Ser.
Format
Hardcover
Dimensions
Item Height
1.5 in
Item Weight
25.3 Oz
Item Length
9.6 in
Item Width
6.4 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Trade
LCCN
2006-051093
TitleLeading
The
Reviews
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."-- Financial Times "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., "The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition.
Series Volume Number
2
Synopsis
Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it., The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes . A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan " A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate " Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probabilitytheory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a black swan., The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.
LC Classification Number
Q375.T35 2007
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- 07. Sep. 2022
Jaw dropping topic
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Even what I already knew came as a Surprise.
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Good price thoughtful book
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The Black Swan
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Excellent Read
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- p***b (22)- Bewertung vom Käufer.Letzter MonatBestätigter KaufExactly as described
- k***w (8603)- Bewertung vom Käufer.Letztes JahrBestätigter KaufGreat condition! Thank you!
- n***p (244)- Bewertung vom Käufer.Letztes JahrBestätigter KaufItem as described
- c***m (421)- Bewertung vom Käufer.Letzte 6 MonateBestätigter KaufWOW!; I cannot believe this 3 Days to Hawaii! ; AAA+++; Excellent Service; Great Pricing; Fast Delivery-Faster Than Expected to Hawaii!; Shipped 05/05, Mon, Received 05/08, Thu to Hawaii using free shipping; USPS Ground Mail, Book in Excellent Condition--Better Than Described ; TLC Packaging; Excellent Seller Communication, Sends updates . Highly Recommended!, Thank you very much!The Internment of Japanese Americans During World War II (Nr. 146005407795)
- v***v (2060)- Bewertung vom Käufer.Letzter MonatBestätigter KaufAlthough this book was not as described, with no picture of it in the listing, the seller communicated well and quickly gave me a full refund while letting me keep it. The minimal packaging left the book a bit vulnerable (typical for ThriftBooks), but it did arrive safely and timely. As usual, it’s hit or miss with this seller, but often times you can get great values, and their customer service is always very good. Many other sellers with millions of transactions don’t even communicate.
- 2***j (113)- Bewertung vom Käufer.Letzter MonatBestätigter KaufI've ordered several items from this vendor now and they've always been what they were advertised as. This was no exception. Both discs were in great shape as well as their jewel cases. Delivery is good, packaging is simple but effective for what you're paying and I haven't had any get damaged. Will keep buying from this vendor because of the results so far and good prices, too.