Table Of ContentTHE SPIRAL OF PRACTICE. The Earthquake Hut. A Blundering Oracle. Trial by Water. Scars and Healing: The Power of Seismic Gaps. The Best-Laid Plans. Earthquake Hazard. THE SPIRAL OF THEORY. Disaster Theory. Theory of Strong Motion on Soft Ground. Science in Ashes: A Theory of Coincidence. Conclusion. Appendices. References. Index.
SynopsisEarthquakes are among the most destructive natural catastrophes, due largely to their unpredictability. Many lives could be saved if reliable, practical prediction techniques could be developed. While plate tectonics provide fundamental insight, proposals for practical prediction techniques are controversial. Using rigorous statistical techniques, this study analyzes the most promising approaches., The new field of earthquake prediction is scientifically challenging. Many lives could be saved if reliable, practical, prediction methods could be developed. While plate tectonics offers basic insight, proposals for practical prediction techniques are controversial., The new field of earthquake prediction is scientifically challenging. Many lives could be saved if reliable, practical, prediction methods could be developed. While plate tectonics offers basic insight, proposals for practical prediction techniques are controversial. This book contains the rigorous statistical methods and analysis which allow readers to recognize promising approaches.